Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges With Putin Over Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's scheduled negotiations on the near lengthy conflict in the region have been put on hold.

Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been overstated, it seems.

Just days after Donald Trump announced he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
  • Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed

The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get Russia done," he said.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost four years.

Reduced Influence

According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president benefited from a history of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.

Combine Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the global economy and further escalate the conflict.

Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the wake of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.

The president often boasts about his skill to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's meeting in August produced little tangible outcome.

Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.

During the summer, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would sign off on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards delayed.

Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia called the US president who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.

The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.

Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the president of Ukraine later made note of the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.

So, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and privately urging the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately settled on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.

During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that ending the hostilities is proving more difficult than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.

Patrick Knight
Patrick Knight

A seasoned esports strategist with over a decade of experience in coaching and competitive analysis.

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